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China is now the world's second largest economy in purchasing power parity terms (fourth largest in exchange rate terms) and third largest trading nation. China's economic growth, which has averaged 9.5 per cent over the past two decades, has been the single largest contributor to global growth over the past five years and in 2005 accounted for around one quarter of world economic growth. In 2005, China's economy grew by 9.9 per cent, 0.2 per cent lower than in 2004. Many economic commentators consider growth will moderate somewhat over the medium term.
Real GDP growth is expected to slow to 9.5 per cent in 2006, with easing export growth and increased imports weakening the contribution of net exports to GDP. GDP growth is forecast at 8 per cent in 2007 owing to an expected slowing in investment growth. Consumer price inflation declined from 3.6 per cent in 2004 to 1.8 per cent in 2005 on the back of lower grain prices. Consumer prices are expected to rise by 1.2 per cent in 2006 and 2.3 per cent in 2007, as domestic oversupply and falling global commodity prices limit inflationary pressures. The current account surplus will narrow and significant inflows of foreign direct investment are expected to continue.
In March 2004, Premier Wen Jiabao announced that Government policy on future GDP growth would also emphasise the promotion of social development, including in rural areas and the poorer western region. At the 4th Plenary Session of the 10th National People's Congress in March 2006, Premier Wen reaffirmed this commitment, promising increased farm subsidies and spending on health and education.
China's leadership responded to the significant increases in investment in 2003 and early 2004 that signified an overheating economy by limiting excess credit (e.g. by increasing statutory reserve ratios held by major banks) and steering investment from the steel, aluminium and property sectors. To date, the leadership has been successful in averting a "hard landing" of China's economy and a "soft landing" for China's economy looks likely.
Macroeconomic and financial management remain major challenges. A large stock of non-performing loans has hampered attempts to develop a more market-oriented banking sector. State-owned enterprise reform and its effects on employment make this a sensitive issue to tackle.
On 21 July 2005, China allowed a 2.1 per cent appreciation of the Chinese currency, the renminbi or yuan, to US$1 = RMB 8.11. At the same time, the fixed peg to the US dollar was replaced with a basket of currencies of China's major trading partners including the Australian dollar. The weightings of the basket have not been made public. Australia regards China's currency policy as a matter for China to decide. |
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发表于 2006-7-9 09:55:00